How long will it take for us to get from where we are now to a vaccine and this being something like polio that we no longer worry about?
The best estimates at this
point are 12 to 18 months for possible
release of an effective vaccine. This doesn't mean that in 18 months we'll all be vaccinated, however. It likely will take months of production of the vaccine to have enough for mass distribution. (My suspicion is that it will be released in a gradual, organized form- first to those most vulnerable to dying from COVID19, then to health care workers, then to the general public.) So, even at best estimates, it's likely to take at least a couple of years before we all have the opportunity to be vaccinated against this particular virus. One problem is that this virus has already started mutating, making it harder to pin down and treat. According to the CDC, both the SARS (2003) and MERS (2012) viruses are still infecting people worldwide, although at much lower rates than the
current viral threat. So, unfortunately I don't see this realistically becoming as obscure as polio any time soon.
What is the deal with these treatment drugs? I've heard about drugs for treating Aids, Ebola, and malaria that they say might be helpful. What is the deal with all the
safety testing. People are dying why aren't they just using them right now?
Well, that is a loaded question. The reason the FDA tightly controls development of treatments is because drugs, or combinations of drugs, can potentially cause more harm than good. As of today, there are already several people who have died because they took hydroxychloroquine without FDA approval or physician approval in hopes of keeping themselves from getting sick. Every medication ever produced has potential side effects. There is always a "risk vs. benefit" discussion when submitting a drug for approval. Also, even if a drug is approved as "safe" in humans, the dose (amount) of the drug that is effective for one health condition may be totally different from the dose that is effective for another condition. Drug testing is a rigorous, tightly controlled scientific process that ultimately produces the best treatment for the condition. In the end, the time taken to carefully study the drug's use saves lives. During WWI and WWII, soldiers on the battlefield were given experimental drugs (without informed consent and under non-scientific conditions). The end result is that some great drugs were "discovered", but likely many soldiers died needlessly from receiving untested drugs in these conditions.
Bird Flu, Swine flu, both fizzled out and didn't do much. Influenza comes every year. Why is this such a big scary thing to the medical people? Why do they think that the death numbers will be so much worse this time?
If you look back at the actual numbers of Bird Flu and Swine Flu, you will see that they did kill lots of people. The swine flu in particular caused >12,000 deaths in the US in its first year, as well as an estimated 150,000 to 500,000 people worldwide in the first year. Both viruses are still active in the world and causing illness, particularly in less developed countries. The yearly flu viruses have similarities to previous year's versions of the same, meaning that many people already have developed immunity to them, either by way of vaccine or having already had the virus. COVID19 is a "novel" virus, meaning no one has immunity to it. Death rates are still being studied in this virus, so we don't yet know if it's more or less deadly than previous viruses (in percentage of the population). However, there is good proof that humans can
shed the virus for 14 days before showing any symptoms, unlike the "typical" flu which doesn't
shed infectious cells until after the patient becomes physically ill. This has
led to massively accelerating numbers of infected people worldwide in a short amount of time.
What's this I hear about permanent damage to people who have survived?
It's probably too early to speculate fully on the lasting effects of this virus. However, the fact that the virus causes damage/fibrosis to the lungs indicates that patients who recover from more severe forms of the illness may have long lasting decrease in their lung capacity.
Good questions
@gafftaper . Can I take this opportunity to offer profound thanks to
@Mrs Gafftaper and all the healthcare professionals out there that are selflessly doing what needs to be done. HUGE respect. As to question, for a disinfectant solution, what's a good bleach / water ratio to disinfect household surfaces?
The CDC recommendation is 1/3 cup bleach per gallon of water.