What really concerns me, the high incidence of false negative tests being reported. This could have serious consequences.
While having false negative test results is definitely not desirable or helpful, it might help to think about it this way: if you consider who is being tested for COVID19 right now, it can be broken down into two groups. 1) people who are symptomatic (ie fever, cough, lower respiratory symptoms), and 2) those who work in "high exposure" areas (ie long term care facilities, cruise ships, theme parks). In the first
category, the test is being conducted to help determine the appropriate course of treatment and
level of isolation the patient should be in. At this
point in the pandemic, if you have COVID19 symptoms but test negative, you should continue isolation as if you have COVID19, regardless of the result. If you do get sick enough to be hospitalized, you will be tested again and at that
point you may come up with a positive test result. In the second situation, the testing is being done for data and
tracking purposes to determine how the virus spread to a large amount of people. Obviously, false negatives don't help with good data collection, but in the end they aren't harmful either.
My speculation on the reasons for false negative results are: 1) every lab test has a known "error rate". Typically not 30%, but tests aren't perfect, no matter what they are. 2) inconsistencies or errors in sample collection. The testing process involves sticking a swab WAY back in your nasal passages and not all patients tolerate/allow sufficient swabbing 3) errors in running the tests. Remember that at the beginning of this pandemic coming to the U.S., there was a COVID19 test available that was approved by the WHO, and which had been widely used in other countries. For whatever reason, this test was rejected by the "powers that be" and a new test was developed by the CDC. This test turned out to be faulty, wasting two weeks' time in getting an adequate test in the U.S., and allowing the disease to spread like wildfire. Once the CDC had finally developed the correct test, our country was way beyond the ability to isolate and control the infection. Subsequently, because we were so far behind, the CDC allowed local small companies to also develop tests in order to bolster the ability to do mass testing. While these tests are great and definitely needed, the fact that many companies are literally scrambling to mass produce testing capability inherently increases the possibility for error.
We are literally on the 20 yard
line in enemy territory with 10 seconds on the clock, doing a "Hail Mary" to try to get ahead of this thing, thanks in part to a very easily and rapidly transmittable virus, and to a poorly managed, slow national
system.