COVID-19: CB's house nurse takes your questions

gafftaper

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Looks like they updated the projections Monday morning. Unfortunately their projections added some new data that shows they will need more ventilators.

 

gafftaper

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They have updated the projections twice this week so far. So they are doing their best to stay current. I know there are other projections out there that have a lot higher numbers. So it may be worse than this. I guess everyone has their own system. These come from a project at the University of Washington funded by the Gates foundation.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/
 

Crisp image

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This is Australia
new-and-cumulative-covid-19-cases-in-australia-by-notification-date_0.png
It looks like social distancing is working for us.
 

JohnD

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What really concerns me, the high incidence of false negative tests being reported. This could have serious consequences.
 

gafftaper

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Mrs Gaff recommends this article about how statistical modeling of the virus to project totals works. Really interesting and helpful to understanding the numbers that are going around.
 
What really concerns me, the high incidence of false negative tests being reported. This could have serious consequences.
While having false negative test results is definitely not desirable or helpful, it might help to think about it this way: if you consider who is being tested for COVID19 right now, it can be broken down into two groups. 1) people who are symptomatic (ie fever, cough, lower respiratory symptoms), and 2) those who work in "high exposure" areas (ie long term care facilities, cruise ships, theme parks). In the first category, the test is being conducted to help determine the appropriate course of treatment and level of isolation the patient should be in. At this point in the pandemic, if you have COVID19 symptoms but test negative, you should continue isolation as if you have COVID19, regardless of the result. If you do get sick enough to be hospitalized, you will be tested again and at that point you may come up with a positive test result. In the second situation, the testing is being done for data and tracking purposes to determine how the virus spread to a large amount of people. Obviously, false negatives don't help with good data collection, but in the end they aren't harmful either.

My speculation on the reasons for false negative results are: 1) every lab test has a known "error rate". Typically not 30%, but tests aren't perfect, no matter what they are. 2) inconsistencies or errors in sample collection. The testing process involves sticking a swab WAY back in your nasal passages and not all patients tolerate/allow sufficient swabbing 3) errors in running the tests. Remember that at the beginning of this pandemic coming to the U.S., there was a COVID19 test available that was approved by the WHO, and which had been widely used in other countries. For whatever reason, this test was rejected by the "powers that be" and a new test was developed by the CDC. This test turned out to be faulty, wasting two weeks' time in getting an adequate test in the U.S., and allowing the disease to spread like wildfire. Once the CDC had finally developed the correct test, our country was way beyond the ability to isolate and control the infection. Subsequently, because we were so far behind, the CDC allowed local small companies to also develop tests in order to bolster the ability to do mass testing. While these tests are great and definitely needed, the fact that many companies are literally scrambling to mass produce testing capability inherently increases the possibility for error.
We are literally on the 20 yard line in enemy territory with 10 seconds on the clock, doing a "Hail Mary" to try to get ahead of this thing, thanks in part to a very easily and rapidly transmittable virus, and to a poorly managed, slow national system.
 
Two videos for you to check out:
How Coronoa ACTUALLY Spreads. This one is long but very good. The summary discussion starting at 27 minutes is probably enough for most people.

As for the question of why it will take so long until we have a vaccine I recommend this video. The first 10-15 minutes will probably be enough for you to get the point.
 

StradivariusBone

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Well, Florida was expected to be really bad and outside of the urban areas down south it really hasn't been. And that's in spite of our governor and his pals massaging the data. The proof is in the hospitalizations and we have not been seeing an overwhelming number of people getting admitted. Going to the grocery store now I'd estimate less than half of the patrons are wearing masks and almost every restaurant is back to business as usual.

I don't know. Everything seems to be a stab in the dark and people are either in the "it's a non-issue" camp or "the sky is falling" camp.
 

Ben Stiegler

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1) Can you kill the virus by parking a blow dryer up your nose?

2) How should I prepare my face and nostrils for getting singed up to 136°F while I apply the hair dryer to my nostrils? Is there a lotion I should be using? If I don't have any lotion is there a video I can watch on YouTube about how to roll my own from household cleaning and grocery products?

"SOURCE" (yes...it's Florida...):
You have some interesting neighbors there, Mike...
 

gafftaper

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Why is Arizona looking so bad in terms of projected deaths from pandemic. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/arizona ? Are there that many in the high risk group?
I shared this with @Mrs Gafftaper and she suggested that not only is it age but also that those older people all migrate from other parts of the country, bringing the virus with them. You can imagine seniors from all over the west coast deciding that the best plan for them to be safe is to go to their winter home/condo in Arizona away from the big cities.

Also, let's face it, Arizona seniors are more likely to be in the "Jesus protect me from Bill Gates who created this hoax to take over the world and begin the end times, so pass the bleach" club.
 

StradivariusBone

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Also, let's face it, Arizona seniors are more likely to be in the "Jesus protect me from Bill Gates who created this hoax to take over the world and begin the end times, so pass the bleach" club.

I feel that, but Florida isn't too far from that. Maybe more younger people, but still plenty of people thinking that masks are a conspiracy theory. Is the population density higher than in Florida? It just doesn't add up.
 

BillConnerFASTC

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Well, compared to a few states including FL, GA, TX, and a few others, AZ stopped all "orders" for social distancing May 16. I suspect that is basis. I keep looking for upturns in deaths per day in states that have reopened quite a bit but have not seen it yet. And AZ has not seen an increase yet - still downward trend.

Also struggling with "ordrrs" and actual behavior. Still pretty strict orders in my area but masks have almost disappeared. (Im still wearing mine when there are others anywhere near or in sight.)
 

What Rigger?

I'm so fly....I Neverland.
I shared this with @Mrs Gafftaper and she suggested that not only is it age but also that those older people all migrate from other parts of the country, bringing the virus with them. You can imagine seniors from all over the west coast deciding that the best plan for them to be safe is to go to their winter home/condo in Arizona away from the big cities.

Also, let's face it, Arizona seniors are more likely to be in the "Jesus protect me from Bill Gates who created this hoax to take over the world and begin the end times, so pass the bleach" club.
My dad lives in Kingman, Az. It's small, relatively isolated, and low education. If you live there you're either retired and are out of California for tax reasons, a long haul truck driver, or you cook meth. Just trying to talk him through this new normal has been tough, and the cavalier actions attitude of State leaders doesn't help.
I guess what I'm saying is I'm not surprised and a little scared.
 

Crisp image

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My dad lives in Kingman, Az. It's small, relatively isolated, and low education. If you live there you're either retired and are out of California for tax reasons, a long haul truck driver, or you cook meth. Just trying to talk him through this new normal has been tough, and the cavalier actions attitude of State leaders doesn't help.
I guess what I'm saying is I'm not surprised and a little scared.
I have been to Kingman. We were traveling from Vegas to the Grand Canyon in 2016 and chose to take Route 66. We had to wait at in and out burger for my mum, aunt and uncle as they got a little lost and did not know how to use the GPS on their smart phone and their battery went flat. We also visited Walmart before we left which we found to be an interesting experience.
Regards
Geoff
 

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