No doubt that and how densely packed their population is makes it easier for something to spread, but it's important to note that meat/fish markets are no longer considered the source of the virus. Based on genome sequencing, they believe it came from bats because of the similarities to another bat coronavirus, possibly courtesy of an intermediary host of another animal before it infected someone and started spreading.It also has live meat markets out of doors where people shop and eat and where this all started. Hygiene and sanitation is different there. Multi generational housing. Just seems like not a great model for US.
You point out a critical issue in everyone's math. We have a very short term view of the numbers. China has slowed the spread, but it's still there and it will continue to kill people for the next year or more until we get a vaccine. We keep doing math based on what has happened so far. We think of this like flu that has a season, but we don't know that to be true. In fact early research in warm climates suggests it will survive the heat of summer.To Ancient Engineer.
Not sure why you picked 1930 as an reference point, but you made me wonder if I come up with a guesstimate for deaths in USA
So I did a back of the napkin calculation on probably deaths in the US based on China experience from a JAMA ( Journal of American Medical Association) article.
At the writing of the paper, There were 44, 672 confirmed cases. Most in Wuhan. Wuhan has a population of 11 million.
That means that approximately .004 of the population contracted the disease with enough symptoms that they were considered sick.
On the 44,672 who were confirmed, the death rate was 2.3% ( Much higher among older patients. 8% in my age group.
So if we simply expand that to the US with a population of 330 million, we should expect about 1,320,000 confirmed cases.
If we apply the 2.3% death rate that gets us to about 30,000 deaths.
So that is around the death rate from auto deaths in this country for a year.
But the Chinese experience is not yet over. The number of cases is lowering, but there are still new cases ( and new deaths)
And the Chinese took draconian quarantine procedures that are unlikely to be imposed here.
30,000 is probably a reasonable floor for deaths in US. If we work hard at keeping the virus from spreading. If we don't contain it - and our hospitals get swamped - it could be substantially worse.
Just my back of the envelope calculation. - and I am not a health care professional.
One of my fears ( and should be Gafftapers as well) is that 3.8% of the cases were from health care professionals. That indicates that his wife ( and mine ) are at much greater risk from this disease than the general population.
I never suggested or thought this was a lab produced pandemic. I'll leave that to the conspiracy folks.No doubt that and how densely packed their population is makes it easier for something to spread, but it's important to note that meat/fish markets are no longer considered the source of the virus. Based on genome sequencing, they believe it came from bats because of the similarities to another bat coronavirus, possibly courtesy of an intermediary host of another animal before it infected someone and started spreading.
Sorry - have to be explicit about that. I'm seeing and hearing too much misinformation about how this came out of meat market or a Chinese lab -- whether as a bioweapon or as a lab accident. It's astonishing how many people think that someone dropped a petri dish and now here we are.
That's pretty bleak for those of us who still need to work in these crafts as they currently exist. By the time I'd be re-trained enough to be productive, I'd be retirement age.Food for thought for anybody who operates a performance venue.
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