Perceptions and facts about Coronavirus - discussion

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MNicolai

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It also has live meat markets out of doors where people shop and eat and where this all started. Hygiene and sanitation is different there. Multi generational housing. Just seems like not a great model for US.
No doubt that and how densely packed their population is makes it easier for something to spread, but it's important to note that meat/fish markets are no longer considered the source of the virus. Based on genome sequencing, they believe it came from bats because of the similarities to another bat coronavirus, possibly courtesy of an intermediary host of another animal before it infected someone and started spreading.

Sorry - have to be explicit about that. I'm seeing and hearing too much misinformation about how this came out of meat market or a Chinese lab -- whether as a bioweapon or as a lab accident. It's astonishing how many people think that someone dropped a petri dish and now here we are.
 
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gafftaper

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To Ancient Engineer.
Not sure why you picked 1930 as an reference point, but you made me wonder if I come up with a guesstimate for deaths in USA

So I did a back of the napkin calculation on probably deaths in the US based on China experience from a JAMA ( Journal of American Medical Association) article.

At the writing of the paper, There were 44, 672 confirmed cases. Most in Wuhan. Wuhan has a population of 11 million.
That means that approximately .004 of the population contracted the disease with enough symptoms that they were considered sick.
On the 44,672 who were confirmed, the death rate was 2.3% ( Much higher among older patients. 8% in my age group.

So if we simply expand that to the US with a population of 330 million, we should expect about 1,320,000 confirmed cases.
If we apply the 2.3% death rate that gets us to about 30,000 deaths.

So that is around the death rate from auto deaths in this country for a year.

But the Chinese experience is not yet over. The number of cases is lowering, but there are still new cases ( and new deaths)
And the Chinese took draconian quarantine procedures that are unlikely to be imposed here.

30,000 is probably a reasonable floor for deaths in US. If we work hard at keeping the virus from spreading. If we don't contain it - and our hospitals get swamped - it could be substantially worse.

Just my back of the envelope calculation. - and I am not a health care professional.

One of my fears ( and should be Gafftapers as well) is that 3.8% of the cases were from health care professionals. That indicates that his wife ( and mine ) are at much greater risk from this disease than the general population.
You point out a critical issue in everyone's math. We have a very short term view of the numbers. China has slowed the spread, but it's still there and it will continue to kill people for the next year or more until we get a vaccine. We keep doing math based on what has happened so far. We think of this like flu that has a season, but we don't know that to be true. In fact early research in warm climates suggests it will survive the heat of summer.

The point of that flattened curve is that the same huge number of people will get it, we just slow the spread out over a long time to keep a manageable rate so there are enough hospital beds for treatment. We keep the death toll down by slowing the infection rate to one we can handle. The alternative is let it run wild and they triage you at the hospital and split patients between the holding area with only comfort care and the area with treatment for those with a higher percentage chance of survival. That's not fiction, hospitals already have procedures in place for what to do if they have twice the number of patients as beds. It's not pleasant.
 

BillConnerFASTC

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No doubt that and how densely packed their population is makes it easier for something to spread, but it's important to note that meat/fish markets are no longer considered the source of the virus. Based on genome sequencing, they believe it came from bats because of the similarities to another bat coronavirus, possibly courtesy of an intermediary host of another animal before it infected someone and started spreading.

Sorry - have to be explicit about that. I'm seeing and hearing too much misinformation about how this came out of meat market or a Chinese lab -- whether as a bioweapon or as a lab accident. It's astonishing how many people think that someone dropped a petri dish and now here we are.
I never suggested or thought this was a lab produced pandemic. I'll leave that to the conspiracy folks.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175442.htm suggest bats but probably with an intermediate animal. Whether through wet markets - the legal and usual source for fresh food in China - or black markets, the Chinese do like exotic meats. And my point was caution in assuming the conditions in China are the same as in US, and may affect how this plays out.
 

TimMc

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Food for thought for anybody who operates a performance venue.

That's pretty bleak for those of us who still need to work in these crafts as they currently exist. By the time I'd be re-trained enough to be productive, I'd be retirement age.
 

sk8rsdad

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I agree the article is looking at worse possible outcomes. I don't think governments are going to impose country-wide restrictions for localized outbreaks. I can see ongoing programs put in place if such policies were enacted so the compensation is predictable and more automatic.

However, there may be ongoing requirements for public gatherings. For instance, maybe there will be caps on attendance or requirements for large events to add thermal imaging scanners in addition to the usual security checks for contraband and firearms. Perhaps changes to seat spacing or maximum occupancy thresholds that lower the density of audiences. The sort of things that add expenses and reduce overall revenue.

I am thinking about reaching out to all the venue operators I know about crafting some sort of letter to our local representatives about the impacts the restrictions are having and will continue to have. I don't expect much action out of it but it is not at all clear that we are on anybody's radar at the moment.
 

BillConnerFASTC

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Just like the the financial crisis of 2008-2008, the Iraq War, 9/11, Operation Desert Storm, (and before my memory) the Korean Conflict, WWII, and others I don't recall or before that, stuff happens. somehow, we seem to have survived and I expect we will survive this and future events.
 
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Mac Hosehead

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Life imitates art.

Almost a week into "Shelter in Place" and it is starting to feel like a strange episode of "Waiting for Godot" where you hope Godot doesn't show up.

I bought a Colortran Colorspot from a church for $30 in January. A unique followspot. Not sure when it's going to get used.

Flowers are starting to bloom in my yard. I snuck out and bought some potting mix from the hardware store.

I have about two weeks of toilet paper left so I guess everything is good.
 
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gafftaper

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I'm closing this thread and starting a new thread in the General forum that will be hosted by my wife who is a nurse. If you have any questions or comments about COVID-19, please join the discussion.
 
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