Re-opening Procedure after Covid-19

or perhaps more simply
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Decided to clean up my equations this morning

I am the Doctor. Monsters are real. So is Math.

T=time near a person
A=air turnover per hour
R=%Risk of that person being infected
D=Distance Separating
I=Chance of you getting infected
S=Separator effect (Mask, Plexiglass, other physical barriers)

I = T x 1/A x R x 1/D x 1/S
TARDIS you say; Love your acronym!
Toodleoo!
Ron Hebbard
 
Well alrighty, here is another live event coming up in Michigan August 17-23, maybe.

EDIT: The Fair Authority and the Delta County Chamber of Commerce are working with local, state and federal health authorities to create a health and safety plan.
 
So many of these plans involve screening. It was recently being reported that between a 1/3 and 2/3 of people with Covid-19 have no symptoms. Today I read from a major research institution that 80% of people infected may show no symptoms ever. Nothing short of a test will show it in asymptomatic people - and there are only a few rapid - under an hour - tests so far - with price tags in the hundreds of dollars. (I'm sure there will be more faster and cheaper within the next months or year, but not yet.) How can it be safe for large assemblies before the testing is advanced? And all the emphasis on disinfecting surfaces seems pointless. Its a problem with guidelines (or codes and standards, laws, etc.) is that they are based on yesterday's knowledge.
 
It's like the TSA screening passengers, "security theatre"... a public showing meant to communicate "we're taking this seriously." The only actual value is stopping those who either don't know they are sick or are who are in denial about symptoms.

Make no mistake, though, there is a significant amount of the public who are reluctant to go back to places of assembly because of misinformation, old information, or the perception that too little is being done to protect them. Meeting those concerns in some visible way will help assuage them... we hope.
 
I just hope it doesn't kill them. You'd probably save more lives by not allowing anyone over 55 attend. And people with comorbidities.

There is "that", I suppose, but in the end likely a biology-driven process. A pandemic ends when the virus sufficiently mutates or an effective vaccine is found and distributed, or it runs out of hosts. It's not difficult to deduce that there are yet plenty of old and sicker folks who will die prematurely. Until 1 of the 3 conditions are met, anyway...

Those older and sicker people are the audiences for a lot of what we do - from symphony orchestras to musical theater - and losing a chunk of audience is the last thing they need. The worse news is that there's nothing to keep them from getting Covid-19 other than limiting exposure to others and using PPE. Old people staying home, or getting severely ill/dying, do no favors for orchestras or producers or local presenters...

Some industry segments will be able to resume some kind, level or type of live operations but for concerts, general admission nightclubs, and packed auditoriums? We're not there yet.

I'm concerned that in the next 6-9 months our industry will lose both new and old technicians and craftspersons. The Disney and LiveNation sized entities will likely survive but for everyone else, the next 6 months or so and going to be very challenging
 
There is "that", I suppose, but in the end likely a biology-driven process. A pandemic ends when the virus sufficiently mutates or an effective vaccine is found and distributed, or it runs out of hosts. It's not difficult to deduce that there are yet plenty of old and sicker folks who will die prematurely. Until 1 of the 3 conditions are met, anyway...

Those older and sicker people are the audiences for a lot of what we do - from symphony orchestras to musical theater - and losing a chunk of audience is the last thing they need. The worse news is that there's nothing to keep them from getting Covid-19 other than limiting exposure to others and using PPE. Old people staying home, or getting severely ill/dying, do no favors for orchestras or producers or local presenters...

Some industry segments will be able to resume some kind, level or type of live operations but for concerts, general admission nightclubs, and packed auditoriums? We're not there yet.

I'm concerned that in the next 6-9 months our industry will lose both new and old technicians and craftspersons. The Disney and LiveNation sized entities will likely survive but for everyone else, the next 6 months or so and going to be very challenging
Agree.
The question is, is it ok to sacrifice the very few of the younger who die from covid19 for the benefit if the rest.
And the industry is in for a whole lot more hurt. A year or more is my guess.
 
Totally get where you’re coming from, but doesn’t this also seem like a lawsuit waiting to happen?
I think this is why places like disney already are doing this and we'll see it all over the place.. there will be signs saying look if you are in this group and still choose to come in and end up dead its not our fault and you can't sue us, we warned you and you were at risk. I'm sure we'll absolutely see something like this happen and there probably will be some lawsuits and the US is a litigious culture anyway. People/venues are going to do what they can to cover their asses but some of validity of this will be determined in the courts for sure. I know of at least one theatre already who hasn't had audiences but never shut down because they got the determination that they could operate as an "essential business" under the communications umbrella.
 
@josh88 i was more commenting on the “no patrons over 55 and/or no preexisting conditions” policy proposed by @BillConnerFASTC. *tongue in cheek Bill*. I’ve been to enough baseball games I’m very familiar with the you won’t sue us disclaimer.
Oh no, I get it. I'm fully expecting some places will go that route, and someone will sue for ageism, that somewhere else someone will die and try to blame it on exposure at a theatre. We're in such uncharted water and we're all trying to find some scenario that works to figure out the new normal, that I really expect all of it.
 
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And the current "reopening" and people relaxing has already resulted in an increase in deaths. Perhaps more cases and deaths are a justified price for getting back to work as long as health system is not overwhelmed.
 
And the current "reopening" and people relaxing has already resulted in an increase in deaths. Perhaps more cases and deaths are a justified price for getting back to work as long as health system is not overwhelmed.
Justified price probably depends on which end of the ventilator one is one, but absent a vaccine or mutation to a less lethal form of coronavirus, those most vulnerable will continue to die from this disease. No matter what.
 
Justified price probably depends on which end of the ventilator one is one, but absent a vaccine or mutation to a less lethal form of coronavirus, those most vulnerable will continue to die from this disease. No matter what.
I do believe the death count will be significantly higher if we continue or accelerate the pace at which we doing away with social distancing measures. It is not yet the time to assemble in large groups and abandon masks.
 

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