Supply Chain reality

DELO72

Well-Known Member
Hi All,

I just wanted (as the Entertainment world comes back online) to explain the new global reality and set realistic expectations.

1) Shipping times for anything are now double (and that is the best case scenario).
2) Shipping expectations should lowered to realize that a) UPS/FED EX/USPS all are overwhelmed with increased shipments and often fewer employees (due to COVID19), and b) They no longer guarantee delivery dates. So "overnight" shipping is now often "We pick it up a day or two late, and it takes a few extra days to arrive." ORDER YOUR NEEDED PRODUCT WITH THIS EXPECTATION IN MIND! If you need something for tomorrow, you should have ordered it a week ago.
3) Supply Chain is a freakin' MESS! Component and part manufacturers are going out of business, experiencing delays, overwhelmed with backlog of their own because they were shut down or had employees out with the virus, etc. Then add the fact that Container ships are now lined up for days at various ports around the country and can't even schedule times to dock and offload for days or weeks, and you have it even worse.
4) If you have something you will need urgently AT SOME POINT-- Order it now. Don't wait. Many Lamp distributors went through huge challenges last year when cash-flow dried up. They returned stock that they had on their shelves to the manufacturers. As a result they no longer have lamps/etc. on their shelves able to quickly ship out to you. They now need to first order it and bring it in. Add in all the shipping issues above and you can start to understand how long it COULD take to receive anything. It will be months or more before we are back to a semblance of "Normality" with the supply chain where things are flowing relatively normally again, & where you can order something on a Monday that you need for Weds. and expect it to arrive on time. We aren't there right now. Right now you order it on a Monday, the warehouse tries to ship it out but the Carrier doesn't schedule a pickup for another day. Then they take an extra day or two in transit as they can't get a confirmation on a dock receiving time at the destination, etc. You MIGHT get it by Friday. Sometimes it's a week later. Yes- it sucks, but this is the current reality.

ps. Don't shoot the messenger.
 
Lead times on EVERYTHING have skyrocketed.
 
I want it now.jpg
 
It's already here. I am getting quotes of 40-50 week lead times on processors, and those parts I can find have jumped in price. On my latest project at work, the TI motor driver I designed in at $2.25 is now $13.50, and I had to order 6000 of them. So much for any profit margins on my product...
/mike
 
Meanwhile Amazon delivers in two days--come hell or high water. Could such companies have contracts guaranteeing priority service with the shippers? (UPS, FedEx, USPS)
They do have contracts with them. However sheer volume is making things slow down or mishandled. I needed a new telescope pole for my pool. 2 day shipping from UT it got lost ended up in MT then took them a week to get it back here. Sad times.
 
Meanwhile Amazon delivers in two days--come hell or high water. Could such companies have contracts guaranteeing priority service with the shippers? (UPS, FedEx, USPS)

No they don't. They haven't guaranteed PRIME delivery in under two days in almost a year. They no longer promise PRIME Members 2-day (or sooner) delivery. I know this because I am frustrated by it and PRIME shipments are now taking up to a week in some instances.
 
They do have contracts with them. However sheer volume is making things slow down or mishandled. I needed a new telescope pole for my pool. 2 day shipping from UT it got lost ended up in MT then took them a week to get it back here. Sad times.
Everything pool-based is whacked. Chlorine supplies are gone, heaters all went to TX, PVC probably also went there. Actually, most of this is Texas...
 
Everything pool-based is whacked. Chlorine supplies are gone, heaters all went to TX, PVC probably also went there. Actually, most of this is Texas...
They just lost it not low supply. But yes all pool stuff went up. Our chemical company is charging us an extra 10$ to cope with the shortage.
 
From our end, we have a preferential contract with FedEx, so still have 2 tractor trailer pickups a day (minimum), meaning we still ship anything in-stock in 24 hours... but that does not guarantee when products will arrive to you... Once it's left our building............you're mileage may vary.

Also... we're certainly seeing lead-times stretch out, this has totally screwed-up supply chains. This is due to a number of factors, including a general material shortages, a shortage of shipping containers, the fact that every big retailer has booked almost every available slot on every vessel, etc.

Another huge issue is that raw materials prices have skyrocketed. Everything from magnesium to steel and aluminum (used in most of our Pro housings), to Copper, to Plastic, to PCBs to ICs... Pretty much every component has seen major cost increases over the last 9-12 months (on top of 3 or 4 tranches of tariff increases). Add to that the cost of shipping having gone up about 300%, and we're starting to see a formula for some major global disruptions.
 
I'm still having pretty good luck with UPS. Fedex is a mess, with packages arriving at the local distribution center, only to sit for several days to get on a truck for final delivery.
 
From our end, we have a preferential contract with FedEx, so still have 2 tractor trailer pickups a day (minimum), meaning we still ship anything in-stock in 24 hours... but that does not guarantee when products will arrive to you... Once it's left our building............you're mileage may vary.

Also... we're certainly seeing lead-times stretch out, this has totally screwed-up supply chains. This is due to a number of factors, including a general material shortages, a shortage of shipping containers, the fact that every big retailer has booked almost every available slot on every vessel, etc.

Another huge issue is that raw materials prices have skyrocketed. Everything from magnesium to steel and aluminum (used in most of our Pro housings), to Copper, to Plastic, to PCBs to ICs... Pretty much every component has seen major cost increases over the last 9-12 months (on top of 3 or 4 tranches of tariff increases). Add to that the cost of shipping having gone up about 300%, and we're starting to see a formula for some major global disruptions.
Materials Lead times are going to be causing HUGE issues in our industries. I can only imagine how production of aluminum fixture and equipment housings are going to be affected. The availability of Extruded aluminum shapes is drying up quickly and Steel T-Bar the mainstay of the Rigging Arbor Wall has completely disappeared. On top of all that you throw on the delays in shipping once we have a finished product in our our hands... Damn.
 
No they don't. They haven't guaranteed PRIME delivery in under two days in almost a year. They no longer promise PRIME Members 2-day (or sooner) delivery. I know this because I am frustrated by it and PRIME shipments are now taking up to a week in some instances.
They may not be "guaranteeing" it... but they are back to *quoting* it in the last couple months.

They actually make it sometimes, in my market. For some items.
 
I'm still having pretty good luck with UPS. Fedex is a mess, with packages arriving at the local distribution center, only to sit for several days to get on a truck for final delivery.
To be fair, I've always had that issue with FedEx, except when ordering Apple products.
I know it was a thing for many years, not sure if it is still so, but FedEx drivers with their trucks are independent contractors and I'm sure, like Uber, can decide if they want to work from day to day.
 
They may not be "guaranteeing" it... but they are back to *quoting* it in the last couple months.

They actually make it sometimes, in my market. For some items.
Yep, when you checkout, it maybe doesn't say "Guaranteed by Tuesday at 9pm" but it still does say "Arrives Tuesday by 9pm"
 
To be fair, I've always had that issue with FedEx, except when ordering Apple products.
I know it was a thing for many years, not sure if it is still so, but FedEx drivers with their trucks are independent contractors and I'm sure, like Uber, can decide if they want to work from day to day.
FredEx Ground delivery is finalized by contractors in their own vehicles (who look like FredEx employees, but are not). Fred Express delivery is by company drivers in company vehicles.
 
Specifically, Fedex Ground is *Rodeway* Package Delivery; they bought the other chain out some years back, and yes, the trucks are generally labelled on the side with the contact info of the actual operator.
 
Speaking of shipping delays... I am watching the tracking on a FedEx package that was scheduled to be delivered yesterday (Tuesday). It's been sitting in Montana since Sunday night and no longer has a scheduled delivery date. :doh:

Thanks for the manufacturers point of view @DELO72 !
 
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