Definitely not the first domino. Lot of major manufacturers pulled out of CEDIA causing their show to collapse. Think there was another show that had issues too but I can't think of it off the top of my head.
Infocomm keeps trying to reassure people but this year will be light on vendors, seminars, and attendees. Some manufacturers have pulled out, but many who are traditionally there simply never booked for this year in the first place so they don't have to worry about non-refundable booth expenses. Florida's supposed to be coming down off the COVID peak well before end of October, but I'm still half-expecting Infocomm to get cancelled. They're going to keep sending out discount deals and reassurances to try to get people to register, and if it's apparent attendees aren't going to show up, they may have to cancel and eat their financial losses.
Beyond COVID, there's also a very
practical point that makes having trade shows this fall moot. Everyone's on backorder and fighting supply chain issues. Any "new" products won't be shipping in any real volume until next year's round of tradeshows. Don't expect to see anything new at
LDI that will be shipping in large volume before
USITT. And Infocomm this year was delayed from June into end of October. Same issue. Manufacturers are on 4-6 month backorders, so if you order a product around this year's Infocomm, you
might get it just before next year's regularly scheduled Infocomm.