Can we convert all of our Fixtures to LED's in the next 5-10 years?

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bigspl1092

Member
My question is open ended and i just wanted to see what people think about this.

Can we as an industry convert to all LED fixtures in the Next 5 to 10 years?


here is an article from live design about this topic
The Future Of Dimming

please post what you think and feel about this, lets have an intelligent discussion on the topic!
 
bigspl1092 said:
My question is open ended and i just wanted to see what people think about this.

Can we as an industry convert to all LED fixtures in the Next 5 to 10 years?


here is an article from live design about this topic
The Future Of Dimming

please post what you think and feel about this, lets have an intelligent discussion on the topic!
Click to expand...

Do you mean, "Can we as an industry convert to all LED fixtures in the Next 5 to 10 years if the expense of buying pretty much all new gear is being covered by someone else and every manufacturer devotes their R&D time/dollars to improving LED technology?" or "Can we as an industry convert to all LED fixtures in the Next 5 to 10 years in the real world?" I would say the answers to those questions would be "Probably" and "Absolutely no way" in that order.
 
metti said:
Do you mean, "Can we as an industry convert to all LED fixtures in the Next 5 to 10 years if the expense of buying pretty much all new gear is being covered by someone else and every manufacturer devotes their R&D time/dollars to improving LED technology?" or "Can we as an industry convert to all LED fixtures in the Next 5 to 10 years in the real world?" I would say the answers to those questions would be "Probably" and "Absolutely no way" in that order.
Click to expand...

Exactly what I would say. Not to try and be negativelike some people...but I think that 5-10 years is rather early for something as massive as an entire change from a tried and try method of lighting that has been used for many years to a brand new technology that could be ready for that kind of workload in 5 years or in 25 years.

Otherwise, I would love something like that...if I never had to worry if the theater had the right gel or having to make time to change gels and lamps would be great but (at this point) isn't that practical.

And then you add the cost to it all!
 
bigspl1092, we discussed that article in this thread http://www.controlbooth.com/forums/...75-led-v-conventional-lighting-questions.html , but got hung up on
JD said:
...Things are only going to get better as time moves on. Unless, as reported in this month's LD magazine, there is a lack of interest in developing LED fixtures due to the profit margin manufacturers make on dimmer systems !
Click to expand...
rather than perhaps the more important question, yours: Can we convert all of our Fixtures to LED's in the next 5-10 years?

However, your question needs to be more specifically worded:
Do you mean "will users be able to modify today's conventional fixtures to use new light sources?"
"Will owners be able to afford to completely replace existing fixtures?"

See also the recent threads
http://www.controlbooth.com/forums/...omplement-existing-conventional-lighting.html
http://www.controlbooth.com/forums/lighting-electrics/23354-discussion-topic-leds.html
 
LEDs have come a long way and are quite useful but I don't see a complete changeover in five years. The biggest problem is the shortcomings in color mixing that makes it a poor front lighting choice. I think it will be overcome but every generation means discarding the previous generation unless they can figure an upgrade method that doesn't exist now. If someone can figure a viable method to retrofit existing incandesants then that will move it along leaps and bounds.
 
I understand that money is a big factor but look at what everyone is using for conventionals now... Source fours etc only came out with these fixtures in 1992 and they were pretty well widespread by the early 2000's.

the problem of color mixing and getting that perfect color also is an issue but now manufacturers habe began to add yellow amber and white LEDs into the mixing system.

Also why cant manufacturers make a white LED ellipsoidal or wash unit that we could gel but reap the benifits of the energy efficiency not only from the fixture itself but its lower heat output to save on those hefty A/C costs?
 
I'm not saying they can't but obviously gel color would need reworking or the color temps need to be allowed for. You should be able mix the colors with a RGBAW but it just isn't working in the theatre world yet. It works in the concert world but just isn't there for theatre.
 
In theatre, a lot of it is about coordinating costumes and set and lighting. The problem with LED's is that even with RGBAW, there are quite a few dips and empty spaces in the colour output spectrum, which means that those colours just will not show up which screws things up for costume+set.

The few fixtures that are decent enough to use in theater are much too expensive to do a full retrofit of nearly all theaters with.
 
"Can we" -or- "Will we?" I am sure the technology will be available to do the job, but it is more of an economic question. My best guess is that 5 years from now, we may see some fully converted theaters, but suspect that number will be less than 5%. 10 years from now we could reach 40%.

The game changer would be very high output units with a plumit in price. Then conversion would pick up speed.

But, lets look at the past. How many units do you have that are 5 years old? 10 years old? Good equipment tends to hang around for awhile, so I suspect the stuff out there will still be in use for most of us.
 
Costume and set designers will have to learn new color temps and design accordingly.
 
I think LED is going to take more than 5 years to stabilize as an industry. Right now there are vendors popping up everywhere and nothing resembling convergence on cabling standards or form factor. Until that happens there will be reluctance for facilities to invest heavily since they won't want to manage the inventory of incompatible cables and accessories. It's likely we'll see fairly wide adoption of LED for colour washes and cyclorama lighting. If green programs start providing matching funds then adoption will accelerate for schools, community theatres, and publicly run facilities. LED will be huge with the DJ, church, and bar markets with it's promise of low power requirements and lower operating cost. New construction may opt for it if it means running less power to the building. With so much existing inventory, the current technical hurdles facing LED, and ongoing innovation with incandescent and discharge lamp technology, it is not going away any time soon.
 
I work in 3 venues daily that all have lighting systems that have gear dating back to the 70's. I live in a world of Strand/Century fixtures, 6k and 12k dimmers, Altman 360s, etc. Two of these venues see about 200 events a year. The other venue sees about 80 events a year. This is a not uncommon situation for 80% of theatres in the country. Massive amounts of money and infrustructure have been invensted in this gear... and the gear still works great. Its not green, but its proven. 5-10 years? Try 20-30.

The only way I see that changing is if ETC or another company comes out with a new LED basecap for the S4 and S4 Par. It would come in two versions. One would plug right into a standard dimmer and be able to dim via the dimmers power in a standard curve. It would also have the same if not better output then a HPL. They would also make another basecap that takes power in and ACN in (its the future after all). That basecap would have full color mixing capabilites with no holes in the spectrum.

No one is going to replace every fixture they own at 2,000 dollars a fixture. Ain't gonna happen. However, if you could sell a 150 dollar basecap for all the fixtures you currently own.. thats a different story.
 
I work in 3 venues daily that all have lighting systems that have gear dating back to the 70's. I live in a world of Strand/Century fixtures, 6k and 12k dimmers, Altman 360s, etc. Two of these venues see about 200 high profile events a year. The other venue sees about 80 events a year. This is a not uncommon situation for 80% of theatres in the country. Massive amounts of money and infrustructure have been invensted in this gear... and the gear still works great. Its not green, but its proven. 5-10 years? Try 20-30.

The only way I see that changing is if ETC or another company comes out with a new LED basecap for the S4 and S4 Par. It would come in two versions. One would plug right into a standard dimmer and be able to dim via the dimmers power in a standard curve. It would also have the same if not better output then a HPL. They would also make another basecap that takes power in and ACN in (its the future after all). That basecap would have full color mixing capabilites with no holes in the spectrum.

No one is going to replace every fixture they own at 2,000 dollars a fixture. Ain't gonna happen. However, if you could sell a 150 dollar basecap for all the fixtures you currently own.. thats a different story.
 
cpf said:
Unfortunately I think that a lot of the cost of LED fixtures comes from the LED, not the fixture.
Click to expand...

Source 4's are not as common as some people think. Yeah there are a ton of them out there, touring and in newer theaters. But the older theaters still have tons of older strand and altman units. Any for most there is no reason to replace them, especially from a financial standpoint. A lot of venues are just getting by and there is no way they could spend the $200K+ it would cost to convert everything to LED fixtures that will be outdated before they even arrive at the venue. I think there is a good chance we'll see decent adoption rates of wash fixtures in theaters, but replacing ellipsoidals will be a whole different ball of wax.
 
Footer said:
IOne would plug right into a standard dimmer and be able to dim via the dimmers power in a standard curve.
Click to expand...

I don't think this is a feasible design for LED dimming for theatre. LEDs dim on frequency (duty cycle) and not on voltage. Any LED fixture capable of a CRI near 100 is going to require careful control of more than one LED. For instance, red-shifting like an incandescent throughout the dim cycle means changing the colour balance.

A more practical option for ETC would be to build a relay module for the Sensor that provides ACN directly from the rack using IEEE P1901 Broadband over Power line. Then they get to use their Selador engine to drive whatever LED configuration replaces the cap (and likely body) of their S4 equivalent.
 
sk8rsdad said:
I don't think this is a feasible design for LED dimming for theatre. LEDs dim on frequency (duty cycle) and not on voltage. Any LED fixture capable of a CRI near 100 is going to require careful control of more than one LED. For instance, red-shifting like an incandescent throughout the dim cycle means changing the colour balance.

A more practical option for ETC would be to build a relay module for the Sensor that provides ACN directly from the rack using IEEE P1901 Broadband over Power line. Then they get to use their Selador engine to drive whatever LED configuration replaces the cap (and likely body) of their S4 equivalent.
Click to expand...

They could also do something like dimmer doubleing. Split the wave form, have one side power the light and the other side provide the control. The point of the whole thing is it does not take a complete restructuring of your venue to get this working. Instead of having to swap out all your dimmers for constant power modules, run DMX all over the place, etc, you just have to do something in the rack and swap out a base cap. Its probably not going to happen, but it is the only way I see of everyone going to LED's in the next 10 years.
 
derekleffew said:
Yeah, THAT'LL happen, Michael.:rolleyes: Everyone knows it's always left to the Lighting Designer to "fix it with light."

BTW, it's a more complex issue than just color temperature, see the thread http://www.controlbooth.com/forums/ldi-2010/22004-experiments-metameric-failure.html and the article attached therein.
Click to expand...

Along with make our stuff look good before you even think about making the show look good. Well, thats how it works where im working now. Got told that the only thing that mattered for a design was keep the costume person happy because the previous designer had blown them off.
 
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