LED's are still phasing in, and once they have entered the market in full force, or possibly even before they do, newer and cooler things will already be coming up behind then, such as plasma lamps and fiber optics.
Really, the HES DL.3's aren't replacing any existing technology by any means. They're just too pricey to have a
huge effect on the industry.
LED's,
CMY color changers,
Mac III's, and fiber optic
curtains on the other
hand, are more likely to have a greater overall
effect. The effects may not be significantly changing, but that's not a prerequisite for being an industry mainstay. Look at the
ETC Source Four. It wasn't adopted as an industry standard because it could light a
stage like any other light
fixture could. It was adopted because it was/is more efficient, more durable, more versatile, and more streamlined. It wasn't any single improvement that made it what it is, it was a string of small improvements. Being able to exchange a
lens tube, or use the same lamp in all of the different
ETC fixtures (minus the Rev.) were huge steps for the industry, but relatively small as far as technology advancement. The only reason I hesitate to say
ETC has, and will continue to hold the
ERS market, is because all it would take is for some company to come along and make 3-4 small, but well-done improvements to the
fixture design.
Strand came close with the 360°
barrel rotation and thumb screws, except they did it poorly via the use of spring-loaded knobs and the finest quality of cheap plastic.
Selecon came close with their heat dissipation, but has yet to become a
practical and cost-effect enough solution for much of the global market.
Altman, Lightronics, and any of the other copy-cat companies abysmally failed at their
ERS lines because that's all they were,
ERS lines to compliment their other fixtures. They didn't improve the designs of the fixtures at all though. They created fixtures basically so they could say they have that product available to consumers, but it's hardly real competition.
In the end, the job of the lighting industry is to do just that, provide light. If we do it for $2,000,000 or $2,000, and at an extreme inconvenience to the stagehands, or with relative ease-of-use for them, we're still doing our job, except one way we're doing it much better than the other.
It's important to remember that as cool effects become more readily available to the general public, even cooler effects will begin in R&D and production, but
release to the market at higher prices. Now in my realm, I consider something like
Mac moving heads at a
point where they will begin to become more available to the general public, while Showpix and digital projection will bring up the rear as they become selectively available to the small number of groups that can afford them.
Projection itself is still a technology in the making. Just as people see a day where
LED's take over, I speculate that there
may be a day when everything is projection. No more patterns, gels, barn doors, top hats, donuts, strobes, or followspots. Everything could end up to be digital projection, as easily programmable as
conventional, but as powerful as the designer's imagination. Wouldn't that suck if the entire industry was reduced to digital projection, hazers/foggers, and pyrotechnics? But why not? Who needs consumable gels and gobos with fixtures that constantly need to be refocused, when you could get everything you need out of DL.3-like devices with plasma lamps that burn at low wattages, last 15,000 hrs, and provide the same effects, and even have a perfected digital black that is actually black. You'd never have to refocus, only change lamps in and out, and then the rest of the time is wasted programming. With exceptions to pricing, that sort of
power is almost available today, if you've got $20,000,000 or so to spare.